Fed Keeps Key Interest Rate at Record Low

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it was holding short-term interest rates at near zero and would probably make no change for the foreseeable future, despite the apparent end to the worst economic downturn in more than a generation.

The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged reflected a conviction among central bank officials that the nation's economy, while showing signs of renewed growth, remains too fragile to risk tightening credit now or for some months to come.

Earlier, there had been signs of a rift developing among the Fed's governing officials about when to begin pulling back on the monetary reins in order to forestall a possible surge in inflation. But Wednesday's vote by the policy-making Open Market committee was 10 to 0 in favor of keeping the benchmark overnight lending rate between zero and 0.25%.

And Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his peers reiterated the position first taken back in March, saying the rate was likely to remain "exceptionally low" for "an extended period of time."

While acknowledging that economic activity has continued to pick up, with consumer spending notably expanding, officials said the danger of rising prices was low, noting that there was still "substantial resource slack" - namely high unemployment and unused factory capacity.

"This should underscore that the Fed feels it's still a fragile economy, and they're not going to prematurely take anything back," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.

Given the still-anemic condition of the economy, most analysts had expected the Fed to maintain its low-interest rate approach, but some had thought that the earlier official language might be modified to say the policy would continue "for some time," instead of the stronger "for an extended period of time."

Among analysts who parse the Fed's language the way Cold War Kremlinologists once examined pronouncements from Moscow, that seeming tiny shift was seen as a way give a nod to long-standing concerns among bond investors and other inflation hawks as well as to prepare financial markets for a future change in policy.

And Swonk, pointing to a three-minute delay in the scheduled release of the Fed's statement, speculated that there was considerable debate on the language of the statement.

Since the Fed makes no immediate comment on its decisions, the question of whether such a debate occurred and what its substance may have been will likely have to wait until the minutes of Wednesday's meeting are released - three weeks from now.

In addition to its traditional lever of adjusting the benchmark short-term rate, the Fed's strategy for fighting the recession has included extraordinary steps to ease the credit crunch and drive down long-term interest rates, including purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities, which were completed last month.

While many analysts have credited the Fed's measures with helping revive the economy, its actions have also led to a more-than-doubling of the central bank's balance sheet to about $2.1 trillion money that bond investors in particular fear will eventually get into the real economy and stay there, fueling inflation.

Bernanke has insisted that, once economic health is restored, the central bank will be able to vacuum up that money fast enough to avoid an inflation outbreak. But some Fed officials have voiced a preference to move sooner than later.

"The committee appears split between hawks and doves on the timing of and reasons for changes in policy," said Joseph Brusuelas, a Fed watcher at Moody's Economy.com. After Wednesday's Fed statement, he said, "The doves continue to carry the day."

Wednesday's statement shed no new light on the exit strategy. Rather, Fed officials said they would continue their plan to prop up the housing market by buying $1.25 trillion of securities backed by government-linked mortgage finance companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Through late October, the Fed has purchased about $959 billion of these securities. The program is expected to be completed by the end of March.

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